Apple 1 PM EST

With Apple on deck after Lunch – all eyes will be on it. Presently it is trading down 37 cents.

Crude Oil had a wild squeeze on volume, I am watching the 48.61 level for possible re-entry into a short position.

Gold & Silver remain in no mans land ahead of the Fed, the 1322 LIS is now in play, it could be tested prior to a reversal. I believe we need the 1378 to confirm a Bull trend for later… for now it’s working off a good deal of the over-bought condition.

NoKo is overdue for another rampage, what the effects will be is unknown.

The Corporate Tax Cut is looking iffy today… we’ll see what shifting sands develop, it may not be the giant dune our Corporate lords were looking for – another hand out might be delayed until we’ve had to gag for Fiscal Policies designed to recover from the impending dunk ahead.

We have hit our overhead target on the ES @ 2493.50 – I expect a sell-off after Apple’s news after a potential squeeze. Both the DOW & S&P have made higher highs that confirm we’ll be going higher after we complete a sell-off that should be rather nasty… at least this is what I see ahead. IF the metals fail to rally then they are done for now… GLD sucked in buyers… SLV as well.

Potential for Mission Accomplished… 1322 LIS is important.

This is a BS FX/Futes led rally in the PMC, complete Bullshit.

Something Nasty is upon us… Today was the first real day of participation by Institutions. The Fed will be the 15th with nothing real to add to any equation(s). Open Follows, we have had a great deal of ramps on contact roll-over to October – they have used up about all the juice they’ve got…

Should be interesting to trade.

 

Cons that Coined.

DX COT

Commercial Participants within the Currency Complex have been quietly reducing their DX hedge positions and increasing DX Longs.

It usually requires several weeks for this transition to complete, patience is required. We should see the DX tap the 90 level and should this give way as quick drop to 88.

I remain bearish the Precious Metals Complex Intermediate to Longer term as this entire rally has been FX led and is complete BS.

Time will tell, A quick blowoff and the GLD gap fill is in play.

Sunday evening should be interesting.

Eye of the Storm

Back to the drawing board for the Federal Reserve according to William Dudley… it’s time for the Federal Reserve to “rethink” inflation models which are failing to support further rate hike adjustments within their “Model.”

The ECB press conference last night was interesting – Mario Draghi was congratulated on his recent birthday nay one reporter… she then turned to a series poignant questions regarding Asset purchases – which were skirted.

The tough questions found rambling and often quite absurd pronouncements of stability and crisis management. Greece and Cyprus have been abandoned, their collective economies have been left for dead.

October, according to Draghi, is where it all lines up… They will begin to announce their intentions in this timeframe.

Draghi very briefly discussed the Euro’s strength and potential effects on exports and inflation targets, there was nothing specific.

Nothing aggressive, concrete or remotely indicative of future Policy – other than continued Liquidity injections with laser like focus to project control over Member Bond Markets.

I suspect the 125 level will be about it by October, it’s been an open target and one that leads the DX to 86-88 potential.

The Euro is up 14.3% this year, a very large move – the Yuan has reversed and is making new highs.

The long end of the curve had a very large imbalance yesterday – Bonds were halted. A noticeable and telling sign arrangements are being shuffled rapidly.

Dollar Weakness – Next Leg Up – Draghi 7Z Talk Down

Bonds… getting sporty on potential for inflows, order imbalances.

Bond Trading Closed
Bond Trading Closed

 

The next leg down appears to be readying…. Gold & Silver will go straight up to targets overhead @ 1362.50 & 18.27…

DX @ 91.88 is setting up to fail soon.

The Euro is now targeting the 125s, Draghi will attempt to talk it downQT does not end until March of 2018. 10:30AM will provide the color. Perhaps a hiccup, but the trend remains the friend.

Dollar weakness is not Euro strength.

ECB Policy measures will fail as will FED Measures.

FOMC Member Dudley speaks this evening at 7:00PM.

*** Futures rollover 2day – HWB’s matter – the correct levels.

ES 2493

The new target for the ES – Short Term.

Potential for a very large squeeze is now open.

2493 should represent the failure level for the coming drop.

If we cannot cross back up and over 2472… then we test 2398.

 

Au 1362.50

The order flow in Gold has been very aggressive, expect the 1362 level to be hit, potentially this week.

Silver is merely along for the ride, 18.27 is open now.

I anticipate the large drop in the Broad equities markets to bring the complex down as well.

Gold has the potential to go straight up unimpeded.

“Something” is brewing – it’s close… what “It” is…. no idea, but there is the potential for a large downdraft dead ahead.