2575 ES – next target

Pains me to say this as it extends the Bubbles in everything.

Look for 2575 into OpEx as the next Daily Target.

The first payroll drop in 7 years returns – 6 handles on the ES.

Were this a decade ago we’d be down 20-40 handles and that would equate to 3 to 5%…

Remarkable how controlled this mess of a market remains – it will likely get much worse prior to it normalizing. Perhaps it won’t until it simply implodes.

Gold staged a rally to its .618 retirement target. Holding off to see how 1240s trade.

 

The “Everything has Changed” in August

Appears to be missing the ether with an exception – arbitrage.

The Chinese Yuan Oil/Gold contract is a rather large step forward in cutting off foreign official funding of US government deficits, and in particular US Entitlement & Defense spending.

It seems axiomatic – “certain parties” in Washington DC might see stopping the successful implementation of the Chinese Oil/Gold oil contract as a matter of National Security and yet those pulling the levers may permit it… it assures failure – a run on the US DX which implies Failure of our Bond Markets.

The same cannot be said for China… they view it a National Security.

by the Numbers – Support / Resistance

Gold & Silver are performing their usual consolidated price action. Nothing much to add their.

The new target for Gold is the 1323s. Anything above 1301 is Bullish on the 15/60

Silver – 17.30s to 17.52/17.87 Positive Zone.

The Broad indices are a complete Algo driven whipsaw is this consolidation zone.

The long levels on the ES broke yesterday.

2498.75 is the pivot level at resistance – bullish above / bearish below. The ES rallied into resistance only to reverse again.

The YM broke it’s long as well… far more technical than the ES… 22307 is the LIS all downside risk.

The NQ broke hard, a retracement in the FANGS is coming due. 5911.25 is the LIS – bullish above, bearish below.

CL is kicking serious ass to the upside after a prolonged consolidation – target was hit and repeated extensions are possible. 51.19s remains the LIS for S/R.

Dollar/Yen after Yellen/FED sold off – we ended last week in a trailing short – theYen should rally to the 112.07 – the 112.22s = DX weakness – a short squeeze.

I’m expecting a reversal day today at some point = bulls have to defend today or the indices are going to drop and drop hard.

There will be a strong retracement from lower targets – trend entry is key to profiting from these moves down. They very rarely made easy any longer.

Chasing gets a trader lit up quickly when the tape gets moving.

Markets rallying with Bonds rallying… flipped for the first time in a long time, watch bonds, protection is going on again.

Copper Confirms

Precious Metals gave up the ghost finally. We did not hold a single support level on the way down – resistance held every time and was front run.

We’ll see where it all settles in and trades – a great deal of warning signs remain.

This “Fake Rally as I’ve referred to it for months on end has begun to show its hand.

That we were unable to tap the 1378s… remains the tell. I had looked forward to that event, but it was not to be as we slid down the slope of hope and Bulls were taken apart once again.

Commods in general are a sell.

The Yen is busted again, the Euro flailing ahead of the 25th elections, whipsawing wider arcs… not bullish.

Crude Oil is pulling back, we shall see where the Bots end up taking it… it’s failed support again.

Indices should make a higher high on the daily prior to rolling over. The degree of Central Bank propping has never been more evident.

All in All, it’s a dangerous place to be, hedge accordingly.

Into the Fed

Everything paper – Up into the Fed.

We appear to be approaching an important ST high for September.

Everything Drop Ahead.

Gold should come back up to retest the scary drop, IF not then look out below.

The entire rally was one rather large fake out to the upside that at minimum  – this sets the precedent for a true bull market later in 2018 – 2023.

Gold bugs are being curb stomped once again… surprised?

No.

Correlations Diverging

Gold /Yen symmetry has broken, Au is stronger than the ¥. The Yuan is now the leader… this is of great importance.

Support levels for Gold extend to the 1264s, from the 1312s, 1322s – the 1309 level remains channel support.

Gold has failed it’s pullback for a larger target leading us to 1378.

For now… we will see what develops.

Quad-EX today equals volatility intra-day (within channels) to end of day.

Churn to chop to pop.

2501.32 to 2503.85 should be the ES high for this move.

We should close near highs and these should be the highs that hold EOD until we retest the prior month’s lows – the probabilities have increased we will see a sell-off to 216xx’s within the next few weeks. One more intra-day spike high is not out of the question, but by all appearances this is setting up to be an ST Distribution area where we’ll need to see some given back to get more later.