Macro Update for Dow Jones Industrial Average

A close tomorrow beneath 24,698 will confirm the prior lower Targets I have posted.

We failed the .618, we failed the .500. 25308 traded, but failed. 25741 – the key pivot I posted earlier today – failed. 25K is now 1,000 points above and we’re not going back there any time soon.

Today’s close barely made it back up and over 23920 @ 23953 but opens the door for the Weekly @ 23248.

We are at risk of trading to that target tomorrow. Today’s 1128 point swing amply demonstrates the Bots are in control.

19,678 will open as the next deep extension low should we trade to or below 23248.

Ideally TIME would present this low very quickly, possibly prior to March…

Closing today below the top of the Lower Weekly Channel @ 24,441 was a serious warning we are heading lower.  Should Price trade the bottom of the channel Рthen we will see the 22,440.

After that, look out below as the FEBRUARY / March 2017 lows opens up.

 

Crash similar to 1987

I don’t believe so – the Octopus frankly has only one way out to keep order.

Of course, there’s always chaos…

We should have a temporary low in by March.

Then, Rally into May where we should experience some sort of odd and unexpected exogenous event – a Black Swan of some sort… something outside of conventional financial events.

Time lines up then.

I have no inclinations as to what it would be.

It is simply Time by my methodology.

Afterward, once the dust settles – we’ll begin to see a doubling of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

We would need to fail 19,784 and then 16,011 for there to be extended economic crack up and something none of us would care for or participate within.

I tend towards favoring the Crack Up Boom continuing with no shortage of Bumps and Bruises along the way.

Fortunately, I’m old enough; when the failing systems fall part – dust to the wind.

The Week That Was

Dow’s biggest single-day drop since Brexit (June 2016) Dow’s biggest point drop since Lehman (Oct 2008)

Dow’s worst week since Jan 2016 VIX’s biggest spike since Aug 2015

China Deval / Flash-Crash China’s Shanghai Comp worst week since Dec 2016

China’s Shenzhen Comp worst week since Jan 2016 Germany’s

DAX worst week since Feb 2016

30Y UST Bond’s worst weekly drop since the election (Nov 2016)

UST Yield Curve (2s30s) biggest steepening week since election (Nov 2016)

High Yield Bond’s worst week since March 2017

Dollar Index first weekly gain in two months Dollar Index biggest daily gain since Jan 2017

Gold’s worst week in two months

Silver’s worst week since July 2017

Bitcoin’s worst week since Jan 2015 (04:04PM)

The Sea of Red Continues

A difficult day to approach the Buy Side on any instrument, the two that remain in positive territory and that is NG & GC.

I posted the Put/Call ratio for NG yesterday, it’s worth review if you missed it.

Non-Farm Payrolls (188K), Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, UMich Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations & Factory Orders round out today’s Data.

The Fed’s William’s speaks at 2:30PM EST and will provide some direction as to the Fed’s next move within the Rate Cycle.

The Indices began selling off after hours, earnings season has presented some poor forward guidance – very poor in many instances.

The YEN & AUD bean selling off last night, both became shorts as sell stop were triggered. The AUD went from being my larger long to my largest short off the 8026 failure.

BitCoin broke 8,000 solidly…

Crude Oil came off it’s highs, RB is down half a percent.

Dow was down 300 early on, 8:30 will provide direction as we have Data out then, for now it’s ranging between it’s ¬†low and -.236.

Traders will remain on ES Leader as it’s downside extension fails at 2782.25. The Daily reversal stands @ 2760… a long way down.

It’s Friday, typically low volume, low participation – today’s not that day.