Aggressive Bid under Au

Gold has been bid heavily since last Friday, there remains a firm hand under the market.

Pullbacks are to be expected – 1272.25 remains an important area. We did not see price dip-in to the 1240s – ideally 1246…

Silver has been outperfroming Gold – an excellent sign. The bid under Silver remains extremely strong.

Targets – barring a break of support, are north of 1400 for gold and 20 for silver.

2575 ES – next target

Pains me to say this as it extends the Bubbles in everything.

Look for 2575 into OpEx as the next Daily Target.

The first payroll drop in 7 years returns – 6 handles on the ES.

Were this a decade ago we’d be down 20-40 handles and that would equate to 3 to 5%…

Remarkable how controlled this mess of a market remains – it will likely get much worse prior to it normalizing. Perhaps it won’t until it simply implodes.

Gold staged a rally to its .618 retirement target. Holding off to see how 1240s trade.

 

The Price of Gold is Fully pegged to the US DX – again

The game of hot potato has reversed – Currency markets understand the shift back.

The Gold Currency Index vs the Price of Gold clearly demonstrates.

Au-Oli
Au:Oil

This math in the preceding 3 charts shows that if you can get physical gold that for the past 100+ years has been worth between $2,330 – $30,850 for the price of $1,250/oz. – odds favor the purchase – as does common sense. All you have to do get that physical gold is price your oil in Chinese Yuan.

The “Everything has Changed” in August

Appears to be missing the ether with an exception – arbitrage.

The Chinese Yuan Oil/Gold contract is a rather large step forward in cutting off foreign official funding of US government deficits, and in particular US Entitlement & Defense spending.

It seems axiomatic – “certain parties” in Washington DC might see stopping the successful implementation of the Chinese Oil/Gold oil contract as a matter of National Security and yet those pulling the levers may permit it… it assures failure – a run on the US DX which implies Failure of our Bond Markets.

The same cannot be said for China… they view it a National Security.

by the Numbers – Support / Resistance

Gold & Silver are performing their usual consolidated price action. Nothing much to add their.

The new target for Gold is the 1323s. Anything above 1301 is Bullish on the 15/60

Silver – 17.30s to 17.52/17.87 Positive Zone.

The Broad indices are a complete Algo driven whipsaw is this consolidation zone.

The long levels on the ES broke yesterday.

2498.75 is the pivot level at resistance – bullish above / bearish below. The ES rallied into resistance only to reverse again.

The YM broke it’s long as well… far more technical than the ES… 22307 is the LIS all downside risk.

The NQ broke hard, a retracement in the FANGS is coming due. 5911.25 is the LIS – bullish above, bearish below.

CL is kicking serious ass to the upside after a prolonged consolidation – target was hit and repeated extensions are possible. 51.19s remains the LIS for S/R.

Dollar/Yen after Yellen/FED sold off – we ended last week in a trailing short – theYen should rally to the 112.07 – the 112.22s = DX weakness – a short squeeze.

I’m expecting a reversal day today at some point = bulls have to defend today or the indices are going to drop and drop hard.

There will be a strong retracement from lower targets – trend entry is key to profiting from these moves down. They very rarely made easy any longer.

Chasing gets a trader lit up quickly when the tape gets moving.

Markets rallying with Bonds rallying… flipped for the first time in a long time, watch bonds, protection is going on again.

AU & AG arrive right on time

Gap Fills will be a battle.

I’m looking for Gold to retrace to 1319…

From there it’s going to be a game of catch as catch can, we have the 1378 overhead open IF Gold trades above to target(s) – even with all the failures at support – it remains open. It has too OR it’s doomed to probe new lows.

The 1362.40 front run of 10 cents needs to clear and spike higher.

Expect the unexpected here.

ES should retrace to 2495 and dump again or squeeze so hard it’s going to ruin the short side of this trade.

Was short Russell – leaving Crude alone for now.

War is bullish for Oil.