ES Daily Target

The ES larger daily target below is 2446.

Today may end up a repeat of last Friday, low liquidity and intense selling to extremes.

YM’s 23200s could easily come into play IF the lows are not defended prior to the open.

It will be Volatile without a doubt. And this volatility could lead us into a wild reaction back up or straight down, we simply won’t know until it trades.

 

An Incredible Day, Week and Month.

The YM provide $6,514 per contract today for the High to low….

Spectacular if you followed the Chart I posted this mooning, it traded almost to perfection.

Crude Oil – about the same, having nailed the top at 66.66 (how is that not entirely obvious) to the 60.36 low – it’s going lower, although 5905 / 55.22 / 52.88 will begin to arrive quickly, there’s a long that will develop off the lows… to 75 / 92/ 114.

NQ RTY ES gagged… again.

Currencies are getting wild – the 6e is open to 113’s and then 108s.

6a, serious trouble, GBP even more.

Bond shorts are smoking it, another clear short.

The correction has much further to go…

 

When in Doubt – Zoom Out

The YM (DOW/INDU) provides a clearer picture of what is transpiring in the Larger Equity Markets.

Into March we will see the -423.6% tested in my humble opinion.

There is a larger Daily Gap there that requires a fill.

It is rarely straight down, but a process of trading negative extensions and then retracing each level. One could simply purchase some April Puts (Expensive with elevated VIX) or short any instrument and hold.

It would be safer to trade each target in the Futures markets and simply enter/exit at levels.

YM Monthy:

DOW Monthly - YM
DOW Monthly – YM

NG Daily Chart – New Lows for this Series of Extensions

Having the 2681 trade was not a Bullish event, suspect it did encourage a few Sellers, but Volume indicates not many.

Seems Longs are hanging on to their positions ahead of storage numbers.

It will be interesting as the next target below is going to wreck the larger Daily.

NG has broken the 3x bottom that needed to hold, if failure is ahead the 2662 lines up with the trend, below that it is clearly the 2480 level, ~2487 as the -261.8% – that would send NG deeper South eventually.

Larger overhead Price Targets: 2770 / 2837 / 2863 / 2878 / 2891 / 2904 / 2945 / 3012 – Long APR @ 2690.

Volatility will should be contained into Storage. Watch 2770 for a trade, it will setup the larger retracement.

Failure is the 2662 on this setup, the opposing move which implies 2480’s will trade IF it fails today.

Market Conditions

Judging by the way the ES, YM, RTY & NQ are trading, there appears to be a trap being set during the overnight Session.

Volumes are extremely light, liquidity is evaporating.

At the moment the ES had traded IntraDay Support at the 2646.25 dipping to 2645.25.  Difficult to know if we will see a second test that holds or fails. Asia traded a 24 point decline for the ES and 229 for the YM. NQ is in no mans land, RTY is a complete mess with sloppy setups its stock in trade.

The YM needed to close above 24741 today, it missed by 6 ticks @ 24735. The ES need to hold the 2770.25, it missed as well.

One of two things will happen now that we have confirmed a retest of the lows.

Tomorrow we should see the ES retest the 2700 level, perhaps falling short at the 2694s or thereabouts. The YM should pull up to retest the 25308/11 level. Should either break then we are running higher, significantly higher. I assign this a lower probability as once we retest these levels, we should fall back to the lows.

The Monthly upper trend line sits right at 24,000 – the lower 22,000. There is a Daily gap just below that level.

Should Asia trade under 24491 this evening, 24411 would open.

It’s difficult to tell If w’ere going sharply lower or will have one more backtest of the upper resistance, Price will let us know this evening.

YM 25308

The .618 is here for the YM, it should make an attempt to reach it today or overnight.

During the Overnight Session I was short the YM trading ahead of EU’s open. Entry was solid and the move down very contained, picked up 127 ticks and watched the strong reaction at the lows.

No position presently as both the ES/YM have overhead auctions to complete – The ES 2747, YM 25308.

Crude Oil is projecting a move to 67, whether or not that materializes now that we hit the Profit Target in the 62’s will be interesting.