Crude Oil pullback to 55.95~ / Indices will depend on Data

Tomorrow is full of releases from 830AM EST onward.

Opec should have news 11AM EST

GOLD/SILVER remain broken

DX/YEN will provide Bonds, Metals & Currencies with direction.

Rate Hike backpeddling muted today, Yellen more concerned with “Balance” – until February.

Debt creates parabolic moves…

Bitcoins next target is 14,900$ after todays retracement.

BTC Futures will be 5x by $600 per coin or ~$3K per contract, no word on increments by tick as of yet.

 

Feds Increasingly Dovish

It’s a parade of backpedaling for the Federal ReserveBoard of Govenors – sounding Dovish in remarks outside of 33 Liberty.

A 92.8% chance of a rate hike remains.

The Fed is clearly offering some important qualifiers.

Gold / Silver remain, for now in the trend to 1400+, although it appears to be a large trap.

Dow is approaching 237xx, and  the ES 2609 – caution warranted at these levels as Tax Reform is beginning to wear on the Markets.

Crude Oil remains between two opposing moves – the 2013-2016 daily 38% off the top – the lower trend line of that downtrend & the upper channel of the trend of July 2017. Price of the opposing trends sit right above 58.

Crude Breaks

YOY highs did not defend. Portends a great deal of ugliness dead ahead.

54.80s the absolute line in the sand, 620 bips of Air below. 55.90 the retrace potential.

2606 as unlikely as it seems remain the target unless we break 2560.

Gold is a Bull Trap.

Gazprom

I have my sell in at 5.00 – it may go rise higher – IF that occurs, I will buy the pullback.

In my opinion this is the cheapest energy play there is to accumulate, Oil should have a deep retracement – which should provide the final entry for Long after we complete the overhead targets.

At the moment CL is in an opposing measured move short, the entry into the trend is always challenging, 57.05 is the first entry & 57.17 is the second.

It will be interesting to see if the shorts defend, as we could easily see one more large spike prior to the selloff. The 60/62 level remains open for now although we would need to see the 58s trade.

Since CL not liftoff Friday as it had the prior 3 Fridays, it appear the opposing move was in play. I took that trade for 61 ticks.

The longs have been a gift as it was straight up, hold your nose and buy… this may have changed. The VZ Default has a direct impact on Goldman Sachs and yet… price reversed.

We should see increasing volatility in Crude Oil – timed properly with rules in force, it should provide immense profits.

Crude Oil Production Up, Rig Count Up and a Build in Inventories

across Cushing and Gasoline… should see a pullback to 52.88s to 55.56 in the coming weeks.

SPR topped off and many Oil Companies on verge of bankruptcy.

Nothing to see, but Hedge Funds hanging fun now.

After an Historic October for Crude, we are hostage to geopolitical events – ie. Venezuela default.

Congratulations Goldman Sachs bag holders – surely there’s a bailout for that…

Markets Broke Longs

A great deal of work ahead to correct this.

Watching how resistance trades as every Long setup this week has failed.

I have the final weeks of November as an important tipping point. Crude Oil has it’s line in the sand near 56.15, Nat Gas has hit its target at the 3.22s.

Silver is failing now, we could easily test the 15s at this point.

Dollar/Yen and all currencies are completely manic, but highly technical.

Bonds have some work to do as protection went on and was squeezed, but nothing good came calling for the Bond Market.

Very dangerous times in the Broad Indices…

War in the Mid East seems to be approaching much more rapidly than anticipated, this is very worrisome and has yet to price into Global Markets.

The Federal Reserve clearly stood pat in defense today, Fridays are such low volume – it will be an important day for all markets.

Given what we witnessed today, it’s tough to buy the dip and many did not, the squeeze got us some back by days end.

Bias is negative, until we break the shorts and even then, the writing is on the wall.

 

Operandi

The BOE indicated their rate hike was due to “Energy Prices” – this while the UK’s CPI is running @ 3%.

Brent NS to WTIC spread widened again, nearing $7.

With the API on deck after the close today and EIA tomorrow, we’ll see how much gas is left in the rally tank.

The price action has been extremely rewarding, I suggested the Energy Complex would be a best performer awhile back. It has exceeded my expectations.

With Core PCE dragon its ass in the dirt @ 1.3%, the Fed is desperate to stoke the fires of inflation.

We’ll see how this week ends up, as there are even larger targets in the 58s ahead, a pullback would be normal… “aggressive bids” remains the understatement.

The ES, YM, and NQ keep grinding higher, TF has some catching up to do prior to any indication of a ST reversal.

Gold is behaving in as though it wants to test the 1300 level, perhaps falling just short at 1299.

 

Lines in the Sands

A ∑ Crudee Oil draw of 10.1M for the month of October 2017 – sans SPR draws – of which there was a cumulative draw throughout October.

This represents the second highest draw on record for an October – 11.1M in October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August stands as the highest draw.

Prices more than doubled from the high at that time.

There have been 10 crude draws in the month of October over the last 36 years.

Since the inception of the Data there has never been a crude draw every week in October.