2575 ES – next target

Pains me to say this as it extends the Bubbles in everything.

Look for 2575 into OpEx as the next Daily Target.

The first payroll drop in 7 years returns – 6 handles on the ES.

Were this a decade ago we’d be down 20-40 handles and that would equate to 3 to 5%…

Remarkable how controlled this mess of a market remains – it will likely get much worse prior to it normalizing. Perhaps it won’t until it simply implodes.

Gold staged a rally to its .618 retirement target. Holding off to see how 1240s trade.

 

by the Numbers – Support / Resistance

Gold & Silver are performing their usual consolidated price action. Nothing much to add their.

The new target for Gold is the 1323s. Anything above 1301 is Bullish on the 15/60

Silver – 17.30s to 17.52/17.87 Positive Zone.

The Broad indices are a complete Algo driven whipsaw is this consolidation zone.

The long levels on the ES broke yesterday.

2498.75 is the pivot level at resistance – bullish above / bearish below. The ES rallied into resistance only to reverse again.

The YM broke it’s long as well… far more technical than the ES… 22307 is the LIS all downside risk.

The NQ broke hard, a retracement in the FANGS is coming due. 5911.25 is the LIS – bullish above, bearish below.

CL is kicking serious ass to the upside after a prolonged consolidation – target was hit and repeated extensions are possible. 51.19s remains the LIS for S/R.

Dollar/Yen after Yellen/FED sold off – we ended last week in a trailing short – theYen should rally to the 112.07 – the 112.22s = DX weakness – a short squeeze.

I’m expecting a reversal day today at some point = bulls have to defend today or the indices are going to drop and drop hard.

There will be a strong retracement from lower targets – trend entry is key to profiting from these moves down. They very rarely made easy any longer.

Chasing gets a trader lit up quickly when the tape gets moving.

Markets rallying with Bonds rallying… flipped for the first time in a long time, watch bonds, protection is going on again.

Apple 1 PM EST

With Apple on deck after Lunch – all eyes will be on it. Presently it is trading down 37 cents.

Crude Oil had a wild squeeze on volume, I am watching the 48.61 level for possible re-entry into a short position.

Gold & Silver remain in no mans land ahead of the Fed, the 1322 LIS is now in play, it could be tested prior to a reversal. I believe we need the 1378 to confirm a Bull trend for later… for now it’s working off a good deal of the over-bought condition.

NoKo is overdue for another rampage, what the effects will be is unknown.

The Corporate Tax Cut is looking iffy today… we’ll see what shifting sands develop, it may not be the giant dune our Corporate lords were looking for – another hand out might be delayed until we’ve had to gag for Fiscal Policies designed to recover from the impending dunk ahead.

We have hit our overhead target on the ES @ 2493.50 – I expect a sell-off after Apple’s news after a potential squeeze. Both the DOW & S&P have made higher highs that confirm we’ll be going higher after we complete a sell-off that should be rather nasty… at least this is what I see ahead. IF the metals fail to rally then they are done for now… GLD sucked in buyers… SLV as well.

Potential for Mission Accomplished… 1322 LIS is important.

This is a BS FX/Futes led rally in the PMC, complete Bullshit.

Something Nasty is upon us… Today was the first real day of participation by Institutions. The Fed will be the 15th with nothing real to add to any equation(s). Open Follows, we have had a great deal of ramps on contact roll-over to October – they have used up about all the juice they’ve got…

Should be interesting to trade.

 

Cons that Coined.

ES 2493

The new target for the ES – Short Term.

Potential for a very large squeeze is now open.

2493 should represent the failure level for the coming drop.

If we cannot cross back up and over 2472… then we test 2398.

 

Gold Reintroduced – PetroGold

The United States Dollar for Energy trade is winding down.

China’s power elite has provided an alternative to the U.S. privilege of Currency Senoirage – they are “Prepared” to link Oil to Gold convertibility.

PetroDollars are not long for this world, the Dollars twilight loses another candle to the winds of change.

China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold

Yuan-denominated contract will let exporters circumvent US dollar.

It should be noted – this is Not a Peg to Gold as some are suggesting, but a link to convertibility.

China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

 

 

 

September 15th

Janet Yellen will raise interest rates and confirm asset normilzation by implementing sales on the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

We could trade up and into this pivotal event – with OpeX one day behind.

I was asked via email what my thesis is for the prior post.

This is my thesis – train wreck ahead.

It is frankly the perfect setup…

***NOKO remains the vector for undoing this – this would provide the FED with cover it needs to stand pat. It would need to occur 3 to 6 days in advance.

Valet

GC @ Pivot 1323.50

SI @ Pivot 17.53

These levels should hold into the close as the Complex needs to maintain it’s FX led Bullish cadence.

I believe we will find the high for the Complex in September – prior to OpeX in September.

1338 will either contain or provide the gateway to 1362 on a close over. We’ll know more after Labor Day.

News will be used to drive the Complex – Gold has disconnected for now – this will be a temporary event.

2520 remains the upside target for the ES… I suspect we slightly exceed the old highs prior to falling away – It may be too convientent to assume the Markets topped in August.

The Administration has been fronting huge Fiscal expenditures coming in 2018… The FED is behind this as they prefer Credit is ¬†borrowed for protection. Interest rates are providing a tell on the long end.

Government mandates will drive the Markets in 2018.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride into September, we will need a reaction high prior to a sharp and nasty reversal. When it arrives – again, should be slightly ahead of the 16th of September.

Energy remains my sector for 2018 – it has the potential to outperform all else. Patience as we could easily see the 30s again.

Month End Prop

Notice how Au is heading for its Weekly resistance @ 1323.50…

it will be pegged there for month end today – essentially a predictable, free trade Long.

Might as well jack Silver up to its 17.87 target and Close with a Bullish tilt.

I maintain all this is a show… a serious setup for a serious decline ahead. It is entirely Futures driven… you can watch it trade plain as day.

The charts have gone sloppy and the Mining Equites look as though they have no idea what price level matters – it is entirely Also driven trading.

This should leave us at today’s end with a Bullish setup for a run to 1338 and potentially 1362.

In order to bring a market down… you need a chase… we are seeing it develop the 8th week of complete BS. Volumes are driven by the FX Market.

RGLD’s volume has been declining… GLD is off after 2 strong days of selling – it met my 125 target, it appears a weekly run to 130 is now open. This would be telling and a potentially large sell.

Headlines and fear are being used to suck in the late comers – I suspect we see a large blowoff spike to sell and watch as price collapses into OpEx – September.

It is improbable there is a solid structure to any of this, but then again Markets are constantly evolving… I trust none of it.