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Dow – 25,100 – we could see a deep retracement should the Tax Reform Iniative fail to pass.
SPX – 2700 – Ditto Tax Reform Failure leads us in January – early March should see a large retracement.
Gold/ Silver – Highs expected in the 1272-86 region prior to the next test of support and lower lows 1192-1202 range – potential for 975 – the 50 year HWB remains open – should gold retest and break the most recent high, 1418 opens.
Crude Oil – 71 or 63, trade the break @ 57.50, daily long is at 55.22, break and it’s down…
Happy Holidays everyone~!
The ES/NQ/YM/TF continues to power higher.
Z1 Flow of Funds for Q3 stands at a staggering 134% of GDP – $26.35 Trillion.
Resistance for the YM is now 25,080 – from a range of 25-26K we should see a pullback in the broad indices. A 3- 5% correction, although touted heavily in the weekend Financial Media – would be a gift. Will it occur – seasonally it’s an easy spike to 25K for year end.
Conversely, a sell the news type of event surrounding the Fed’s decision on a December rate hike could provide the fuel for a retracement. Core PCE will have an impact, although it appears we will see an uptick as general price levels have risen during the period. A 1.5% PCE would provide all the cover needed ahead of the the 13th.
Gold/Silver are done for now, 1192 – 1202 remains the open target prior to the potential for a full HWB to the $975 level. Silver will continue to trail Gold. The DX is on the cusp of a very large rally. BOJ interventions are no longer tracked at the St. Louis Fed, nor is the BOJ communicating them on daily or even weekly basis.
Dark Pools continue to dominate , Algo’s are playing whipsaws daily, intra-day volatilities continue to expand while the VIX remains managed.
It’s all blue sky – January should mark an interim low or high, the December close will provide direction. We should see resolution into March where a Summer rally takes us to Dow 32,000 – 42,200.
BULLARD: FOMC RISKS INVERTING YIELD CURVE IF IT KEEPS HIKING
Tomorrow is full of releases from 830AM EST onward.
Opec should have news 11AM EST
GOLD/SILVER remain broken
DX/YEN will provide Bonds, Metals & Currencies with direction.
Rate Hike backpeddling muted today, Yellen more concerned with “Balance” – until February.
Debt creates parabolic moves…
Bitcoins next target is 14,900$ after todays retracement.
BTC Futures will be 5x by $600 per coin or ~$3K per contract, no word on increments by tick as of yet.
It’s a parade of backpedaling for the Federal ReserveBoard of Govenors – sounding Dovish in remarks outside of 33 Liberty.
A 92.8% chance of a rate hike remains.
The Fed is clearly offering some important qualifiers.
Gold / Silver remain, for now in the trend to 1400+, although it appears to be a large trap.
Dow is approaching 237xx, and the ES 2609 – caution warranted at these levels as Tax Reform is beginning to wear on the Markets.
Crude Oil remains between two opposing moves – the 2013-2016 daily 38% off the top – the lower trend line of that downtrend & the upper channel of the trend of July 2017. Price of the opposing trends sit right above 58.
Decreasing volumes are leading us into an ST Top – 63 is doable on a break of 60.
Keystone offline will have a dramatic impact on Cushing INV @ 810Kbpd.
Many gaps below on Daily…
BTC will complete the latest extension to target, form here it’s straight up or not at all.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
The past week followed in prior footsteps, declines were held mostly to the overnight session with one exception.
A close near the lows, which we have not seen since August.
Bonds began a very strong rally off their recent bottom.
DXY went on a teat, completing the 1299 target for Gold, Silver made strong move as well.
The indices are relying on the boost from Tax Reform which is a gift at the expense of taxpayer ($1.5 Trillion and counting) – the cost of which will be borne by the rest of us.
We’ll see how effectively it is promoted, one things is certain – IF/When the $3.5 Trillion offshore comes back home, the next leg up in the indices will be massive.
Crude Oil is completed a reversal, ahead of OPEC it now has it’s first overhead target in the 59s… The PetroYuan comes into play shortly.