Year End 2017 Targets

Dow – 25,100 – we could see a deep retracement should the Tax Reform Iniative fail to pass.

SPX – 2700 – Ditto Tax Reform Failure leads us in January – early March should see a large retracement.

Gold/ Silver – Highs expected in the 1272-86 region prior to the next test of support and lower lows 1192-1202 range – potential for 975 – the 50 year HWB remains open – should gold retest and break the most recent high, 1418 opens.

Crude Oil – 71 or 63, trade the break @ 57.50, daily long is at 55.22, break and it’s down…

Happy Holidays everyone~!

 

Higher Highs, Higher Lows – Wider Range

The ES/NQ/YM/TF continues to power higher.

Z1 Flow of Funds for Q3 stands at a staggering 134% of GDP – $26.35 Trillion.

Resistance for the YM is now 25,080 – from a range of 25-26K we should see a pullback in the broad indices. A 3- 5% correction, although touted heavily in the weekend Financial Media – would be a gift. Will it occur – seasonally it’s an easy spike to 25K for year end.

Conversely, a sell the news type of event surrounding the Fed’s decision on a December rate hike could provide the fuel for a retracement. Core PCE will have an impact, although it appears we will see an uptick as general price levels have risen during the period. A 1.5% PCE would provide all the cover needed ahead of the the 13th.

Gold/Silver are done for now, 1192 – 1202 remains the open target prior to the potential for a full HWB to the $975 level. Silver will continue to trail Gold. The DX is on the cusp of a very large rally. BOJ interventions are no longer tracked at the St. Louis Fed, nor is the BOJ communicating them on ┬ádaily or even weekly basis.

Dark Pools continue to dominate , Algo’s are playing whipsaws daily, intra-day volatilities continue to expand while the VIX remains managed.

It’s all blue sky – January should mark an interim low or high, the December close will provide direction. We should see resolution into March where a Summer rally takes us to Dow 32,000 – 42,200.

 

Crude Oil pullback to 55.95~ / Indices will depend on Data

Tomorrow is full of releases from 830AM EST onward.

Opec should have news 11AM EST

GOLD/SILVER remain broken

DX/YEN will provide Bonds, Metals & Currencies with direction.

Rate Hike backpeddling muted today, Yellen more concerned with “Balance” – until February.

Debt creates parabolic moves…

Bitcoins next target is 14,900$ after todays retracement.

BTC Futures will be 5x by $600 per coin or ~$3K per contract, no word on increments by tick as of yet.

 

Feds Increasingly Dovish

It’s a parade of backpedaling for the Federal ReserveBoard of Govenors – sounding Dovish in remarks outside of 33 Liberty.

A 92.8% chance of a rate hike remains.

The Fed is clearly offering some important qualifiers.

Gold / Silver remain, for now in the trend to 1400+, although it appears to be a large trap.

Dow is approaching 237xx, and ┬áthe ES 2609 – caution warranted at these levels as Tax Reform is beginning to wear on the Markets.

Crude Oil remains between two opposing moves – the 2013-2016 daily 38% off the top – the lower trend line of that downtrend & the upper channel of the trend of July 2017. Price of the opposing trends sit right above 58.

Crude Oil

Decreasing volumes are leading us into an ST Top – 63 is doable on a break of 60.

Keystone offline will have a dramatic impact on Cushing INV @ 810Kbpd.

Many gaps below on Daily…

Consolidating at Highs

The past week followed in prior footsteps, declines were held mostly to the overnight session with one exception.

A close near the lows, which we have not seen since August.

*Of note:

Bonds began a very strong rally off their recent bottom.

DXY went on a teat, completing the 1299 target for Gold, Silver made strong move as well.

The indices are relying on the boost from Tax Reform which is a gift at the expense of taxpayer ($1.5 Trillion and counting) – the cost of which will be borne by the rest of us.

We’ll see how effectively it is promoted, one things is certain – IF/When the $3.5 Trillion offshore comes back home, the next leg up in the indices will be massive.

Crude Oil is completed a reversal, ahead of OPEC it now has it’s first overhead target in the 59s… The PetroYuan comes into play shortly.